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Monday, June 20, 2011

Can a Formula for Points Predict the Final Standings?

Based on the post below determining a formula for points based on goals for and goals against, I naturally wondered if this formula was in any way projective. At the half way point of the season, could the goals for and goals against of a team predict the final standings?

The simplest way to do this is to compare the points formula standings accuracy with the accuracy of the standings by just doubling the points of teams at the half way point of the season. At first glance, it seems that the points formula is projective. The average points error for the MLS is 4.26, which is not off by much. However, if we compare it with the accuracy of simply doubling the midyear points, it is not as projective. The average points error for the MLS with this approach is only 2.75. Clearly, the points formula is not very good at predicting the final standings. You'd be better off just looking at the mid year standings.

Below is the chart for the 2009 season showing what is explained above.

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